I’ve not seen it mentioned anywhere yet, certainly not by any associated formally with Everton, but in four seasons time (2028) the institution that became Everton Football club will be 150 years old.

St. Domingo Methodist Church’s new chapel was first opened in 1871. Six years later, a new minister was appointed, the Rev B.S. Chambers. He started a cricket team for the young boys in the parish, but because cricket was only a summer sport, he decided to form a football club for the winter months. Thus, The St. Domingo Football Club was formed in 1878. The football club became so popular and drew in people from outside the parish and as a result in November 1879, at a meeting in the Queen’s Head Hotel the name was changed to the name we love and is known worldwide today as Everton Football Club.

The last three decades have done much to destroy the legacy of our football club, and despite (possibly also contributed by) the new stadium – much more on this later in the article, our competitiveness, and actually our ability to function, to survive, has seriously reduced, to the point that we genuinely face the existential crisis spoken of by its primary author, Farhad Moshiri.

However, this article is not going down that well-trodden path. Instead it looks at (in as much as a single article can) what needs to be done so that when we enter our 150th year in four years time, we are in a much better place than we are now. Given the point at which the recovery process begins it is quite possible that a full recovery cannot be completed in this time frame, however much of the hard work, the turn-around from where we are now will have been done and it is then a case of seeing strategies playing out.

A New Everton

Regardless, the idea of creating a recovery period of four years leading into our 150th year anniversary provides space to plan and execute, not only immediate short term survival strategies, but a long term vision of a new Everton on and off the field.

Make no doubt about it, a New Everton is required. In a sense, and I recognise the dangers of this comparison and how much a sacrilege this would be for many, but, and I am making a non-political point, this is Everton’s New Labour moment. To return to power, whilst respecting our past, identity and our values,  we have to become something else, do things differently and adopt to the modern environment of a small number of “super clubs” and the following pack. Off the pitch, I will not be talking about hyper-commercialism, but a totally different approach to the city of Liverpool, its people and increasingly its reliance on the visitor market.

However, before that, we need to sort out our current mess.

What needs to happen immediately?

Despite the protestations of many, there remains the chance of administration – a small, but still realistic chance. Why? Because, we continue to spend more than we earn operationally, we have a yet to be completed and still not fully financed capital project with very short timeframes to completion, a huge and unsustainable debt burden, and no obvious short-term funder other than through the sale of player assets, an inevitable but sad consequence of where we are.

To date, we have had mutually consenting (mainly) and supporting funders. The drawn out and ultimately failing takeover attempt by 777 Partners has greatly increased our debt position. 777 Partners own precarious financial position and depending upon what happens in the New York Southern District Court and/or with various State insurance regulators in coming days, may change the nature of that relationship. Particularly if their potential administrators or the existing corporate restructuring advisors were looking at their own debt recovery positions.

Everton’s major creditors include: Rights & Media Funding – approximately £225 million, secured on charge on bank accounts, future player receivables, properties and other tangible assets; MSP Sports Capital £160 million, secured against the  Everton Stadium Development Company and its assets: 777 Partners & associated companies approximately £200 million – junior debt with a subordinated security arrangement with Rights and Media Funding: negligible debt to Metro Bank; and football other trade creditors perhaps as high as £70 million. In addition, Farhad Moshiri though Bluesky Capital £450 million – unsecured.

In addition to the above, Laing O’Rourke’s remaining construction and fitting out costs are estimated at £95 million – some of which has been met by pre-payments, but not all.

Thus a new buyer, (not 777 Partners), has through Moshiri’s misjudgements and choice of 777 Partners previously, a huge barrier to entry. All of the above are costs before a single penny or cent is spent on the playing squad and future management recruitment or future business strategy investment.

It is inconceivable that a new buyer would (i) pay Moshiri anything for his equity and (ii) agree to pay all outstanding liabilities. A difficult position for creditors to accept, and to date, one that has been resisted, however it has to be faced – there needs to be an enormous capital restructuring including hair cuts for creditors in any future purchase of the club. A failure to recognise this, or a failure to agree an incoming proposal of such, means no likely sale of the club and ultimately administration where the restructuring is taken out of the hands of the principals.

What might a restructuring look like?

The most vulnerable creditor is the current owner Farhad Moshiri which perhaps, partially at least, explains his blind faith in 777 Partners – their offer (no matter how unlikely to succeed) offered the prospect of some partial repayment.

No new owner, incoming investor would offer this now. Moshiri’s shareholder loans would be wiped out completely. He might be offered a small retained shareholding going forwards but the reality is that he faces an almost complete loss position.

Rights and Media Funding are  long term lenders to the club. Because of their lending to other clubs it is unlikely they would swap part of their existing debt for an equity stake, however a new owner providing long term secure debt against the stadium may generate enough capital to significantly reduce the R&MF loans. It would be sensible to do so, and any existing debt going forwards either moved to a better quality lender as Everton’s position improves or paid off completely given the exceptionally high cost of borrowing.

MSP Sports Capital are the creditors with the most immediate potential need for repayment. It is their extension of the current loans due to them that allow the club to remain (in the eyes of the directors) a going concern. Secured against the stadium development company, they are secure. The out strategy for them is a new owner either paying with equity funding or the use of a major debt package against the stadium (as per Arsenal and Tottenham stadium funding models). Because of today’s much higher interest rate environment, equity would be preferable. Too much debt loaded on the stadium (i) reduces the increased revenue benefit of a new stadium and/or (ii) leads to much higher ticket prices. For argument’s sake, £400 million of stadium debt at 9% (optimistic) translates to an average annual interest cost per seat of £680.

777 Partners and associated companies’ debt is an interesting one. Their future position would depend on Everton’s own solvency, what was agreed with the two more senior debt providers, and importantly their own future. It has long been a view that a significant element of their debt would be converted to equity. Given all that is now known and additionally alleged about 777, their future is uncertain. Of course, their creditors in their own corporate restructuring (however that transpires) would seek maximum recovery. The reality is far different.  A future equity stake would be highly undesirable from a branding, fans and new owners’ perspective. Who would willingly want to maintain that association?  At best, 777 Partners and associated companies, or their creditor representatives, might see an offer of a partial recovery (15-20 cents to the dollar?) or the issuance of very junior, long date, low coupon debt which in balance sheet terms may be beneficial to 777’s balance sheet (i.e. not crystallising immediate losses. Regardless, a significant cash payment to 777 or whomever is extremely unlikely.

Whatever all the above looks like when negotiated, due consideration has to be given to Everton’s football creditor position and the very strict requirements in meeting those obligations.

Aside from creditors?

Fan shareholdings

New owners must give due consideration to existing shareholders. Share retention is important. Equally, in the context of New Everton an extension of fan share ownership is highly desirable. Whilst not likely to raise significant sums in the context of all that is required, a block of minority holders, individual Everton fans, say perhaps representing 5% of the new share capital would have huge benefits. It strengthens the fan/club bond, it provides tangible evidence of fan ownership and in the context of engagement provides (under a different format to the existing FAB/shareholder association/club relationships) an opportunity for an entirely new governance, engagement and scrutiny model. We would always be minority holders, but what an opportunity for new owners of a New Everton…….

New management

The management of the club has to be totally revolutionised, from board, to executive, to mid-management. First, let me acknowledge that there are plenty of good people working at the club. However it has to be said that the overall culture of the club, the lack of collective, comparative expertise when compared to other clubs is a reflection of the quality of past owners, board members and senior executives. This has to radically change. If we want a a successful club in the future, this is the reality. There is no room for sentiment, no nod to long term, cosy relationship – there has to be total change.

Any new owner not bringing this message, and not bringing people at the top of the business in to do this often unpleasant but necessary task is frankly not going to succeed.

Whilst we can point to historical misfortunes, to global events like the pandemic and economic set-backs including the impact of recent year’s construction cost inflation, ultimately we are in our current position because of the failure of owners and directors to address our competitiveness in managing and a football club and running a successful  commercial operation.

Apart from culture, the harsh reality of cost management and income generation can only be addressed through better owners, the highest quality board membership and exemplary executive recruitment.

Regional economic regeneration and the relationship with the City of Liverpool

Sir Jim Ratcliffe has come in for some considerable criticism for (despite his own considerable wealth) his call for public funding for the redevelopment of Old Trafford. He has neatly tied together the benefits of regeneration, of new investment required around Old  Trafford, job opportunities, tourism potential etc with his own club’s needs.

For what it is worth, I think he is entirely correct. I say that because if he can justify a case for Manchester United (owned by billionaires on both sides of the Atlantic) in a more prosperous city than Liverpool, how on earth cannot the same argument with much greater validity (and need) be made for Everton, Bramley-Moore and the redevelopment of the Northern Docks and North Liverpool more generally.

In an instant Ratcliffe has laid bare the lack of dynamic thinking of Moshiri, of the Everton Board. Personally, I think there’s an undeniable case for some form of development aid for Everton. This is a huge topic, but surely this unites everyone across the City and region. What local or regional politician, MP or members of the House of Lords, or any other political influence/public body cannot see this as a wonderful opportunity. Of course, the current Government have very different ideas and whilst many would argue Starmer’s Labour might not be that different, why are we not making this a condition of continued support for a new Labour Government? Liverpool has been ignored by generations of Tory Cabinets (managed decline, anyone?) but equally it could be argued, might be taken for granted by a future Labour Government too.

Everton’s current ownership and management should have been banging the doors down of the Treasury and elsewhere – seemingly not. There can be no excuse for an incoming owner  not to demand such support, not only for the stadium, but the surrounding area. Without supporting investment in infra-structure and amenities, in isolation the New Everton Stadium will not fulfil its economic, revenue generating potential.

Finally, a slightly different point, but one that would represent New Everton (in my opinion). Whilst I understand the  significance in heritage terms of the “dock wall”, the reality is that it is madness to have the new stadium hidden by it. The dock wall built, no doubt, with security in mind – keeping people out of the docks and protecting precious cargoes and their ships separates the people of Liverpool from the very feature that provided the city with almost all of its wealth – the River Mersey. It might be too late for an immediate change, but what better representation of a New Everton and indeed an new relationship with the city and its multitude of visitors than opening up the stadium and plaza completely? Emotionally it would be significant, but equally economically and commercially. Do we need to retain ownership of the plaza? People have discussed the part sale of the stadium as a solution to our obvious financial difficulties. How about removing the wall and selling the plaza back to the city or other private developers. Integrate the stadium with the future development around it.

It would make economic sense, but perhaps more importantly, be representative of a more integrated Everton, an outward-looking Everton, a New Everton.  We, as Evertonians know the unique bond between us and our City, a bond stronger in every sense than the bond between the City and the club that carries its name. A bond, in truth, more representative of the city’s values and history.

The road to recovery starts with new ownership, definitely not ownership defined by Moshiri’s judgements. It requires strong, well resourced owners prepared to take the essence of Everton and radically engineer a much brighter, more competitive future. It requires, new understanding, courage, and the ability to utilise our past, our assets for the benefit of our club going forwards, to reward existing and future fans and to benefit the city as we have in the past.

The road to recovery is there, in front of us, Moshiri just needs to pass the opportunity to new custodians. It would be fitting if that recovery starting now, would be well established and more, before our 150th anniversary.

Up the Toffees!